Being a sports punter seems to be tougher and tougher each year. We may find bountiful reasons to justify this fact, but will any be adequate? Do they contribute to the validity of the fact altogether? It’s hard to say and there probably is not a 100% correct answer to the following question – “Why football has become so tough to predict?”
Tough schedule for the elite teams
We’ve used to nail the matches featuring the big teams in the top five European leagues. Just a few years ago, Barcelona & Real Madrid were always safe bets in Spain, while Bayern Munich, PSG, and Juventus represented massive dominant forces in their respective divisions. Nevertheless, as stated by the football betting tips experts at Bettingtips4you.com you’d probably be losing money backing these sides to win all of their matches throughout the season. We will discuss particular numbers for some of these outfits below in the article. What do you think is the reason for a sudden drop for the heavyweights?
It is the schedule. It is getting more and more congested every year and top teams simply can’t cope with it anymore. Liverpool’s 2023/21 team is probably the best example of a consequence that came in due to the congested schedule. Jurgen Klopp has lost almost his entire back line since the start of the season. The likes of Virgil van Dijk, Joe Gomez, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Joel Matip, Fabinho, James Milner, and Jordan Henderson are all either still injured or have been injured at some point in this campaign. The Reds are miles away from the battle for the very top of the standings as a consequence although you’d still believe a team with Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, and Roberto Firmino would win all “easy” games.
The Saturday/Wednesday rhythm can be devastating for any team out there. Football is not basketball. Footballers play 90 minutes per game. This season is particularly tough. You should just look at any top team’s schedule and you’ll easily understand our point. If they don’t play the Champions League or Europa League games, the clubs take on each other in postponed league fixtures or domestic cup affairs. Most of them simply do not have a free week in the entire season.
The lack of motivation caused by several reasons
Besides the congested schedule, we have to mention motivation as a massive factor that makes football so hard to predict. There are some teams from the top five European leagues that do not find Europa League exciting at all. Most of them send reserve line-ups for group-phase matches. We’ve seen similar cases in the 2023/21 Champions League campaign even when Jurgen Klopp rested both Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane in the home fixture against Midtjylland (the Reds did not secure the knockout stage by then).
You then have teams that gave up a certain competition because of the previous runs of results. For example, Tottenham Hotspur have been struggling badly to catch the right rhythm in the Premier League. As a consequence, Jose Mourinho decides to tank the domestic competition and use the Premier League matches as a preparation for Europa League affairs. This is because he would see the continental competition as a better route for the Champions League spot next season. We’ve seen the Portuguese manager do so in the past with Manchester United.
Also, we have situations where a team mathematically avoids the relegation with 10 games left to play, but they can’t get involved in the battle for European positions. Their players would not have motivation in the remaining ten rounds and it is practically impossible to predict the outcome of their matches in this instance. They might get on the pitch super-inspired on one day and completely shift the attitude next weekend.
Barcelona, Real Madrid, Bayern Munich, PSG, Juventus, Liverpool…
None of these six giants has been performing at the highest level in the 2023/21 season. They have dominated their respective domestic competitions for years but they suddenly lost the consistency.
We don’t have to travel far back in time to remember what Barcelona and Real Madrid used to do in La Liga. It would be a miracle when one of these two sides drops a point against anyone else. A three-point cushion would 80% of the time mean the title for any of the two teams. This season, Blaugrana took one point from two matches with Cadiz (with all due respect to them), Los Blancos are struggling badly to score goals at all. Even Atletico Madrid, who were a dozen points clear at the top of the league ladder at some point, have managed to drop their lead by failing to beat the likes of Levante for example.
Bayern Munich enjoyed a perfect campaign across all competitions last season. They won as many as six titles. However, all these trophies may have affected the team’s motivation for this season. The Bavarians suffered a shocking DFB Pokal elimination to the lower-division opposition and they keep dropping points week in and week out in Bundesliga. The team played a 3-3 draw at home to Arminia Bielefeld before losing 2-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt. Who could have predicted such results from the European champions?
PSG looked to be en route to defending the title with ease once again just a couple of months ago. However, by far the most valuable Ligue 1 team suddenly fell to the third position after suffering unexpected defeats. Les Parisiens lost both clashes against Monaco this term. That same Monaco shares the spoils with Lorient on the home match just a week before clinching a fantastic victory at Parc des Princes. In Italy, Juventus are suddenly not at the top of the standings although they have won numerous consecutive titles. In England, Aston Villa beat Liverpool 7-2 and Arsenal 0-3 but they also lose 3-2 at Burnley.
No expert could possibly predict such results. In the end, the lack of teams’ consistency leads to the lack of the punters’ consistency. It is as simple as that.